The global antimony market has been thrown into chaos following China’s decision to impose an export ban. This move that has created a stark pricing divide between domestic and international markets. The ripple effects of Beijing’s policy are reshaping supply chains, forcing traditional sellers to seek new buyers, and disrupting smelter operations worldwide.
China’s ban triggers price surge- but not at home
China, the world’s largest producer of antimony, implemented an export ban that sent shockwaves through the industry. As expected, the restriction on outbound shipments triggered a sharp increase in global prices, with antimony now trading at around $46,500- 49,000 per metric ton (MT)for 99.65% . However, within China, domestic prices have plunged, falling to approximately $25,000-25,800 per MT.
The reason for this paradox is simple: Chinese antimony producers are now restricted from selling to international buyers and are forced to sell exclusively to domestic smelters. With supply effectively locked within national borders, Chinese smelters have gained significant leverage, purchasing the metal at a steep discount compared to international rates.
Global smelters scramble for supply
The disruption in pricing has led to a reshuffling of supply chains, as non-Chinese producers look for better-paying markets. Many antimony miners who previously relied on selling to China are now exploring alternative buyers, hoping to capitalize on the premium prices available elsewhere. This shift has opened opportunities for new entrants in the market while complicating procurement strategies for smelters globally.
Adding to the turbulence, some smelters outside of China have pivoted their business strategies in response to the price imbalance. Instead of waiting for ore to be processed into metal, some are choosing to sell raw antimony ore directly. This allows them to realize faster returns, as demand for ore remains strong. However, this redirection of ore has contributed to shortages of antimony trioxide and refined metal, leading to supply constraints for end users reliant on processed forms of the element.
At the same time, smelters are pushing back by offering lower payables. Whereas one used to be able to expect payables of 55% for 40% Sb, as prices have moved up substantially, buyers are now capping the payables at lower levels, roughly 5-9% above the contained antimony. This shift is making it more difficult for miners to achieve the expected returns from their ore sales.
Turkey’s rapid rise in Antimony production
Amid the market disarray, Turkey has emerged as an unexpected beneficiary. Just four years ago, the country’s antimony industry was struggling with relatively low-grade ore. However, significant investment and funding have transformed Turkey’s position in the global supply chain. Today, the country boasts several small-to-medium vertically integrated producers, spanning from mining to metal refining.
Turkey has always been a net antimony producer but previously struggled to compete with both China and SPMP—the largest antimony smelter outside of China, based in Oman. While rumors suggest that SPMP will restart operations in the fourth quarter, Turkey is currently benefitting from strong antimony prices, access to financing, and the absence of competition from either China or Oman.
The future of the Antimony market: Uncertainty reigns
Looking ahead, while the fundamentals of the antimony market remain, the sustainable price of antimony remains deeply uncertain. Several key questions loom over the industry: Will China eventually relax its export ban, or will it double down on its domestic-first strategy? How will smelters outside of China adapt to the shifting supply landscape? Will emerging producers like Turkey continue to expand their influence?
For now, the sharp price divergence between China and the rest of the world has created a challenging environment for both buyers and sellers, with some players reaping unexpected gains while others struggle to secure supplies.
As the world watches China’s next move, one thing is clear: the global antimony market is undergoing a transformation that could have lasting consequences for industries reliant on this critical mineral.
