This is despite unfounded fears that the squeezed market has entered a tin crunch. Although tin has dropped off from its peak in January 2023, it is not “stuck in a downward spiral” as some analysts have predicted. In fact, the tin price remains at historic highs, despite a substantial decline since the start of the new year. These declines happened across the mining sector though, with most metals and minerals, including lithium, the darling of the battery metals, which has experienced significant losses since the start of 2023.
The confidence in Mpama South has added another layer of fat between Alphamin’s operations at Bisie and an expected lower price during the first half of 2023. Alphamin though, a producer of more than 4% of the world’s mined tin, has enough meat on the bone to see through even the leanest of times.
Fitch’s prediction of $20 000/t of tin in 2023 looks scant compared to the white metals’ high rolling 2022 when the price consistently hovered around $30 959/t. However, Bisie’s high-grade product at Mpama North, backed up by renewed confidence in Mpama South’s geology and expected support from a market that will gradually recover from the year’s macro-economic shocks, will add to Alphamin’s ammunition against continued short-term volatility.
But tin miners that weather the predicted storm can look forward to tin prices edging higher as demand starts to pick up and market surplus narrows towards the end of 2023. According to Fitch prices will continue to edge higher to reach $45 000/t by 2032. But it will be tough in the trenches for the first six months of 2023 as a strengthening dollar places a cap on metals priced in the currency and the Chinese market continues showing slow demand after the country recovers from Covid-19 lockdowns instated last year.
According to Fitch, global use of tin will increase rapidly through the metal’s use in electronics, particularly as electric vehicles are manufactured with increasing levels of electronics in their body, and as solar panels cement tin’s status as a commodity of the future.
Mpama South on the rise
Alphamin’s Mpama South project is adjacent to the currently producing Mpama North mine. Mpama South will produce approximately 7,200 tonnes (t) of contained tin per year from 2024, thereby increasing Alphamin’s annual tin production to 20,000t.
That is already nearing the 7% mark of global tin production, and with more exploration results at the prolific Bisie Complex showing early signs of even better possibilities, Bisie has certainly grown into the role of being reckoned as one of the top five tin mines in the world.
The most recent update on Mpama South’s Resource Estimate focused on upgrading the Inferred Resource to Indicated Resources by using assays from an additional 63 infill and extensional drill holes. Upgrading Inferred Resources to Indicated or Measured categories is essential for conversion to Ore Reserves in the future.
Since releasing the Maiden Resource Estimate for the deposit early last year, a series of MRE updates have followed. Previous updates more than doubled the contained tin in its Inferred Resource from 50,000 tonnes to over 120,000 tonnes. Resources in the Indicated category, however, had remained steady at around the 20,000-tonne mark.
Whilst the total tin contained in the Resource has only marginally increased, tin contained in the indicated resource has almost quadrupled, up by 58,000. Now, the Indicated Resources lies at 80,200 tonnes contained tin, from 3.26M tonnes ore at 2.46% Sn.
The updated MRE now includes results from 187 drill holes at Mpama South as well as 6 drill holes drilled in 2015 in the area between Mpama South and the Mpama North ore bodies.
According to Alphamin, extensional drilling down-dip east of Mpama South can be conducted should the company elect to carry on extending known mineralization at Mpama South, which is still open in multiple directions.
Mineralization in holes show prospectivity
High-grade drill holes around the peripheries where mineralization remains open indicate the remaining prospectivity for Resource expansion. Mineralization in these holes remains open and varies in grades from 3.0%-6.0% Sn, and thicknesses from 7.2m-17.5m. Thus, the extent of Mpama South, although not known, is extremely prospective.
“However, for 2023, the focus will primarily be aimed at the Mpama South mine construction and commissioning efforts, while exploration drilling will be curtailed, instead, focusing on further fieldwork campaigns to support future programs,” Alphamin said in a statement.
According to the International Tin Association, the increased output from Mpama South is essential to narrowing the deficits expected in the next few years. Although not an immediate focus as it has been during the past two years, exploration will remain part of the mine’s growth. As they did at Mpama North, Alphamin will continue to replenish tin that has been depleted through mining activities.
Bisie Ridge Regional Exploration Update
Meanwhile, Alphamin intensified exploration drilling on the 13km long Bisie Ridge from Q3 2022 to test highly anomalous soil, geophysical and structural targets identified during 2021.
More than 8,773 meters of the 10,000-meter Phase 1 diamond core program have been completed along the Ridge, with the remainder due for completion in Q1 2023.
Although anomalous mineralization has been confirmed in drilling on the Ridge, it is not of the obvious coarse visual cassiterite type frequently seen in drill cores from Mpama North and South.
Only ~25% of assays have been returned from the independent laboratory to date from the Ridge drilling. Assay results when received will support a fuller investigation into the regional setting, along with data from the ongoing geophysical downhole surveys, structural investigations, and mapping, thereby enabling a refocused exploration program.
Until then, the key focus at the site remains the construction and commissioning of the new Mpama South Mine.
Bisie a top performer
Alphamin’s Bisie remains a top performer in the world of tin miners. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the prolific operation pushed production up to 3,113 tonnes, bringing the annual production to 12,493 tonnes in 2022. This was a record achievement and is about 14% higher than the previous annual record of 10,969 tonnes.
Since its inception, Alphamin has aimed to improve the efficiency around their processing methods and underground mining equipment. These efforts have now paid off, with outstanding performances by the underground equipment.
Average tin grades of 3.82% for the year were 7% higher than 2021, after a highly mineralized area, not previously included in mineral resource or mine plan, was successfully mined.
However, because of the structurally complex nature of the material, recoveries were negatively impacted. Between Q2 and Q3, plant recoveries dropped 5 percentage points to 72%, recovering slightly to 73% in the final quarter. Overall, the 75% average plant recovery was a slight improvement on the previous year.
Looking forward to 2023, Alphamin is predicting production rates of about 12,000 tonnes, very similar to 2022. However, production is set to increase substantially towards 2024 as the Mpama project starts coming online. Commissioning of the new mine is expected to take place during the final quarter of this year. Increasing production to 20,000 tonnes of contained tin will elevate Bisie further into the top five tin mines in the world.
